[h=1]Top fantasy rookies (plus sleepers)[/h][h=3]Which rookies should you have in mind come draft time? Here are 20 names[/h]By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
It seems a bit early to be talking fantasy ... except for the fact that one day after the NFL draft ended, I was already seeing tweets asking me which rookies could be fantasy sleepers. Well, here's a start. Last year I did pretty well with these early looks: Eddie Lacy was my top rookie option (he led rookies in fantasy points in 2013), and Keenan Allen was No. 1 on my sleepers list (he led rookies in receptions).
I will of course lay out this caveat: Rookies rarely should be considered as early options in fantasy drafts. They often do their best work later in the season as they figure things out, and as players in front of them deal with injuries. This year looks like it'll be no different, though I do expect the No. 1 rookie on the list below to be the No. 1 RB on his team's depth chart by the time the team breaks camp.
[h=3]Top 10 fantasy rookies[/h]
1. Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson's 279 carries are now gone, and only Shonn Greene (77 carries in 2013, 3.8 yards per carry) remains, and he is not only coming off knee surgery, but he lacks explosiveness. Sankey was drafted to play, period. I think 200-plus carries is a reasonable expectation, and Sankey will get to run behind an improved offensive line. Oh, and Sankey catches passes, too; he caught 67 passes at the University of Washington.
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2. Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints: The Saints moved up to get Cooks, a clear indication they covet what he can do for them immediately. Lance Moore and Darren Sproles are gone, taking with them potency in the slot and on underneath throws (they caught 90 combined passes last season). Cooks will soak up the targets, and 70-plus catches in 2014 would not surprise me. This is a ready-to-play talent, and he can be moved around.
3. Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills: Can EJ Manuel deliver the ball down the field? I have my questions about that, but that actually matters less with Watkins around. The Clemson star made his hay after the catch, and I expect the Bills to funnel him the ball at the line of scrimmage or close to it. He should pile up catches, if not big yardage. But touches will equal big plays if he gets enough chances.
4. Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: The addition of Hill is a clear sign the Bengals have seen what they need to from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who hasn't averaged more than four yards per carry since 2010. But The Law Firm actually had 50 more carries than Giovani Bernard in 2013, so the platoon approach will remain. It's just that now Hill will get the carries, particularly near the goal line.
5. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants: With Hakeem Nicks gone, there are targets to be had here. I think Eli Manning will figure out quickly that Beckham can create separation more regularly than Rueben Randle or Mario Manningham, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Giants' first-round pick got between 85 and 100 targets.
6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers: I'm not convinced at all that Benjamin is ready to be an effective route-runner and create space at the NFL level, but no depth chart in the NFL is more devoid of play-making ability at wide receiver than Carolina's, and the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Benjamin should see the field and get his share of targets. He also has the size to draw targets in the red zone, a fantasy bonus.
7. Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore has been durable, but he dipped to 4.1 yards per carry last season. The fact is that Hyde immediately became the most explosive running back on this roster the moment he was drafted. I foresee a platoon with Gore and Hyde, with Marcus Lattimore potentially working his way in. The 49ers wouldn't have drafted Hyde in Round 2 unless they planned to use him. Maybe he doesn't pile up early carries, but he's a good stash option.
8. Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: I had to pick one of the two second-round receivers Jacksonville drafted, and I'll give the nod to Lee over Allen Robinson. Lee gets a little bump here because he's a dynamic runner after the catch, and offensive coordinator Jeff Fisch should be looking to find him plenty of touches. He's kind of a poor man's Watkins, because while he can beat you deep, he'll get plenty of short touches.
9. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matching up with Vincent Jackson is already a problem for defenses. The thought of Evans drawing favorable matchups thanks to Jackson's presence is going to be good for presumed starter Josh McCown. I have Evans a little lower than some might in their fantasy rankings, because I know the Bucs really want to run the ball, but he has added value for his red zone appeal.
10. Jace Amaro, TE, New York Jets : I went back and forth here between Amaro and Eric Ebron of the Detroit Lions. Amaro gets the slight nod because I think he'll be a critical target for the Jets. He's the big, rangy pass-catcher they've lacked, whereas Detroit will spread targets to Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush, among others. Look for the Jets to roll out some two-TE sets and for Amaro to benefit.
[h=3]Sleeper options (non-first-round picks)[/h]
1. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers: There's a very real possibility that Adams could be the third option for Aaron Rodgers next to Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. That's not a minor role, given how prolific Rodgers is.
2. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Not only is McKinnon a freakish athlete, he's the only explosive running back the Vikings have beyond Adrian Peterson. If AP were to get hurt, McKinnon could take off.
3. Bruce Ellington, WR, 49ers: He's quick, with reliable hands, and he comes in with a lot of experience. He's also a worthy early second-rounder who went in Round 4. San Fran could have a steal.
4. Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams: The Rams have Zac Stacy, but Mason could turn this into a split-carries situation pretty quickly, and will once again be running behind offensive lineman Greg Robinson.
5. James White, RB, New England Patriots: You don't even have to wait for an injury; just wait for a fumble. White, who rarely ever puts the ball on the ground, will get his share of work if someone else does.
6. Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins: Could he be this year's Keenan Allen, a first-rounder on tape who fell because the combine numbers don't live up? Maybe. Landry simply doesn't drop passes.
7. Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Chicago Bears: Matt Forte has been durable, but if he gets dinged up, Carey could inherit those carries. Carey lacks breakaway speed, but he doesn't waste time going east-west.
8. Andre Williams, RB, Giants: When Rashad Jennings is your No. 1 back, you don't have a clear hierarchy. Williams has a chance to get his share of carries this year. Just don't fumble, Andre.
9. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Steven Jackson will be 31 by training camp, and Jacquizz Rodgers won't be handed too many carries. If Jackson is out, Freeman could get his share.
10. Cody Latimer, WR, Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning has Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker. But Denver moved up to get Latimer, and any injury could thrust him into a big role in a target-rich environment.
It seems a bit early to be talking fantasy ... except for the fact that one day after the NFL draft ended, I was already seeing tweets asking me which rookies could be fantasy sleepers. Well, here's a start. Last year I did pretty well with these early looks: Eddie Lacy was my top rookie option (he led rookies in fantasy points in 2013), and Keenan Allen was No. 1 on my sleepers list (he led rookies in receptions).
I will of course lay out this caveat: Rookies rarely should be considered as early options in fantasy drafts. They often do their best work later in the season as they figure things out, and as players in front of them deal with injuries. This year looks like it'll be no different, though I do expect the No. 1 rookie on the list below to be the No. 1 RB on his team's depth chart by the time the team breaks camp.
[h=3]Top 10 fantasy rookies[/h]
1. Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson's 279 carries are now gone, and only Shonn Greene (77 carries in 2013, 3.8 yards per carry) remains, and he is not only coming off knee surgery, but he lacks explosiveness. Sankey was drafted to play, period. I think 200-plus carries is a reasonable expectation, and Sankey will get to run behind an improved offensive line. Oh, and Sankey catches passes, too; he caught 67 passes at the University of Washington.
<OFFER></OFFER>
2. Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints: The Saints moved up to get Cooks, a clear indication they covet what he can do for them immediately. Lance Moore and Darren Sproles are gone, taking with them potency in the slot and on underneath throws (they caught 90 combined passes last season). Cooks will soak up the targets, and 70-plus catches in 2014 would not surprise me. This is a ready-to-play talent, and he can be moved around.
3. Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills: Can EJ Manuel deliver the ball down the field? I have my questions about that, but that actually matters less with Watkins around. The Clemson star made his hay after the catch, and I expect the Bills to funnel him the ball at the line of scrimmage or close to it. He should pile up catches, if not big yardage. But touches will equal big plays if he gets enough chances.
4. Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: The addition of Hill is a clear sign the Bengals have seen what they need to from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who hasn't averaged more than four yards per carry since 2010. But The Law Firm actually had 50 more carries than Giovani Bernard in 2013, so the platoon approach will remain. It's just that now Hill will get the carries, particularly near the goal line.
5. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants: With Hakeem Nicks gone, there are targets to be had here. I think Eli Manning will figure out quickly that Beckham can create separation more regularly than Rueben Randle or Mario Manningham, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Giants' first-round pick got between 85 and 100 targets.
6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers: I'm not convinced at all that Benjamin is ready to be an effective route-runner and create space at the NFL level, but no depth chart in the NFL is more devoid of play-making ability at wide receiver than Carolina's, and the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Benjamin should see the field and get his share of targets. He also has the size to draw targets in the red zone, a fantasy bonus.
7. Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore has been durable, but he dipped to 4.1 yards per carry last season. The fact is that Hyde immediately became the most explosive running back on this roster the moment he was drafted. I foresee a platoon with Gore and Hyde, with Marcus Lattimore potentially working his way in. The 49ers wouldn't have drafted Hyde in Round 2 unless they planned to use him. Maybe he doesn't pile up early carries, but he's a good stash option.
8. Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: I had to pick one of the two second-round receivers Jacksonville drafted, and I'll give the nod to Lee over Allen Robinson. Lee gets a little bump here because he's a dynamic runner after the catch, and offensive coordinator Jeff Fisch should be looking to find him plenty of touches. He's kind of a poor man's Watkins, because while he can beat you deep, he'll get plenty of short touches.
9. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matching up with Vincent Jackson is already a problem for defenses. The thought of Evans drawing favorable matchups thanks to Jackson's presence is going to be good for presumed starter Josh McCown. I have Evans a little lower than some might in their fantasy rankings, because I know the Bucs really want to run the ball, but he has added value for his red zone appeal.
10. Jace Amaro, TE, New York Jets : I went back and forth here between Amaro and Eric Ebron of the Detroit Lions. Amaro gets the slight nod because I think he'll be a critical target for the Jets. He's the big, rangy pass-catcher they've lacked, whereas Detroit will spread targets to Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush, among others. Look for the Jets to roll out some two-TE sets and for Amaro to benefit.
[h=3]Sleeper options (non-first-round picks)[/h]
1. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers: There's a very real possibility that Adams could be the third option for Aaron Rodgers next to Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. That's not a minor role, given how prolific Rodgers is.
2. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Not only is McKinnon a freakish athlete, he's the only explosive running back the Vikings have beyond Adrian Peterson. If AP were to get hurt, McKinnon could take off.
3. Bruce Ellington, WR, 49ers: He's quick, with reliable hands, and he comes in with a lot of experience. He's also a worthy early second-rounder who went in Round 4. San Fran could have a steal.
4. Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams: The Rams have Zac Stacy, but Mason could turn this into a split-carries situation pretty quickly, and will once again be running behind offensive lineman Greg Robinson.
5. James White, RB, New England Patriots: You don't even have to wait for an injury; just wait for a fumble. White, who rarely ever puts the ball on the ground, will get his share of work if someone else does.
6. Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins: Could he be this year's Keenan Allen, a first-rounder on tape who fell because the combine numbers don't live up? Maybe. Landry simply doesn't drop passes.
7. Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Chicago Bears: Matt Forte has been durable, but if he gets dinged up, Carey could inherit those carries. Carey lacks breakaway speed, but he doesn't waste time going east-west.
8. Andre Williams, RB, Giants: When Rashad Jennings is your No. 1 back, you don't have a clear hierarchy. Williams has a chance to get his share of carries this year. Just don't fumble, Andre.
9. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Steven Jackson will be 31 by training camp, and Jacquizz Rodgers won't be handed too many carries. If Jackson is out, Freeman could get his share.
10. Cody Latimer, WR, Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning has Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker. But Denver moved up to get Latimer, and any injury could thrust him into a big role in a target-rich environment.
